Why polls fail to predict elections

Forecasting elections with non-representative polls

Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly sampled individuals are asked for whom they intend to vote. While representative polling has historically proven to be quite effective, it comes at considerable financial and time costs. Moreover, as response rates have declined over the past several decades, the statistical benefits of representative sa...

Policies and Polls: Elections and Land Conflicts in Paser, Indonesia

Why Does Theoretical Physics Fail to Explain and Predict Earthquake Occurrence?

1. The multidimensional character of seismicity: time, space, and earthquake focal mechanism need to be modeled. The latter is a symmetric second-rank tensor of a special kind. 2. The intrinsic randomness of earthquake occurrence, necessitating the use of stochastic point processes and appropriate complex statistical techniques. 3. The scale-invariant or fractal properties of earthquake process...

Why Reengineering Projects Fail

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Why students fail calculus

Received doctrine that permeates the literature and practice of K-12 mathematics education, if implemented uncritically, will obstruct the development of skills that are critical for the study of calculus. Two false dichotomies are of principle concern : • Blind rote is always bad and leads to error, whereas thinking about what you are doing is always good and leads to success • Solving problem...